Occurrence and cycles

Total Solar Eclipse Paths: 1001–2000. This image was merged from 50 separate images from NASA.^[11]

Total solar eclipses are rare events. Although they occur somewhere on Earth every 18 months on average,^[12] it has been estimated that they recur at any given place only once every 370 years, on average. The total eclipse only lasts for a few minutes at that location, as the Moon's umbra moves eastward at over 1700 km/h. Totality can never last more than 7 min 31 s, and is usually much shorter: during each millennium there are typically fewer than 10 total solar eclipses exceeding 7 minutes. The last time this happened was June 30, 1973 (7 min 3 sec). Observers aboard a Concorde aircraft were able to stretch totality to about 74 minutes by flying along the path of the Moon's umbra. The next eclipse exceeding seven minutes in duration will not occur until June 25, 2150. The longest total solar eclipse during the 8,000-year period from 3000 BC to 5000 AD will occur on July 16, 2186, when totality will last 7 min 29 s.^[13] For comparison, the longest eclipse of the 21st century will occur on July 22, 2009 and last 6 min 39 sec.

If the date and time of any solar eclipse are known, it is possible to predict other eclipses using eclipse cycles. Two such cycles are the Saros and the Inex. The Saros cycle is probably the best known, and one of the most accurate, eclipse cycles. The Inex cycle is itself a poor cycle, but it is very convenient in the classification of eclipse cycles. After a Saros cycle finishes, a new Saros cycle begins one Inex later, hence its name: in-ex. A Saros cycle lasts 6,585.3 days (a little over 18 years), which means that after this period a practically identical eclipse will occur. The most notable difference will be a shift of 120° in longitude (due to the 0.3 days) and a little in latitude. A Saros series always starts with a partial eclipse near one of Earth's polar regions, then shifts over the globe through a series of annular or total eclipses, and ends at the opposite polar region. A Saros (series) lasts 1226 to 1550 years and 69 to 87 eclipses, with about 40 to 60 central.^[14]